Independents ended 2011 on the up (no, really)

A strong, even unexpected, finish to 2011 for independents, saw the highest proportion of bira members reporting a year-on-year increase for the quarter since the survey first began at the end of 2007 and the first quarter in the past seven in which more independents enjoyed higher sales than suffered a decrease. The average rise for these predominantly non-food retailers may only have been 1.57% but this follows more than a year of overall falls.

Regionally the midlands reversed eight quarters of reductions with a storming 7.9% increase as did, to a lesser extent, East Anglia, Wales and the South East (including London). Scotland was stung by the second quarter of decline in a row, having started the year with two quarters of growth.

Furniture and furnishings continued a full year of increases, despite the “big ticket” drag expected from low consumer confidence, while housewares and cookshop as well as DIY and hardware and pet products either reversed late summer blues or continued to show growth. Clothing and footwear completed a full suit of quarterly declines, which may, if other surveys are of any help in explaining this, be down to the effects of widespread discounting. The most pressured areas of trade continue to be books, toys, music and home technology and cards, stationery and hobbies.

The retailer confidence index swung back towards happiness for the first time since June 2010, despite the fact that half have reported a reduction in the size of their overdraft facility by the banks in the past year and over half have suffered input price inflation for the goods they sell of over 5% during the past quarter, while 25% report that it has been over 10%.

Combine the small trading increase with the credit reduction and rising costs and you have a classic squeeze. Neverthess independents remain optimistic and (some) have been rewarded with a modest upturn in their fortunes.

The two page summary can be found here:

We will shortly be demonstrating the significance of this when we reveal the latest surprise from the ever-surprising Local Data Company – the overall national shop vacancy rate may have remained broadly stable but  the number of independent shops actually grew last year. More soon…